Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

中国企业海外并购的特点及成因分析

进入21世纪后，我国企业掀起了海外并购的浪潮，在这次并购浪潮中表现出并购总额持续上升、单宗交易额不断增大、并购行业向多方面扩展、并购主体多元化等新的特点。这次并购浪潮形成的原因主要有：我国经济实力的增长、我国企业对战略性资源的渴求、人民币的持续升值、外汇储备的快速增长、国家政策的转变、全球产业结构的调整等。     

ADR面面观

ADR是近年来在世界范围内蓬勃兴起的一种争议解决方式,确切地说是一组争议解决程序的总称,具有简便、快捷、费用低廉、专业性强以及保密性强等优势,通过ADR解决争议已成为现代法律发展中的一大趋势.然而在我国,除了传统的调解和仲裁之外,其他ADR形式却鲜为人知.本文通过对ADR基本特征的分析,对ADR的范围进行了界定,并着重介绍了国际上流行的各种ADR形式,最后对于我国对外公司在国外工程承包过程中如何灵活有效地运用ADR提出了笔者的建议.     

辽宁省农产品市场流通体系建设现状及对策

该文系统分析了辽宁省农产品市场流通体系建设的基本情况,明确了存在的主要问题,提出了今后一个时期的发展思路和对策:一是提升批发市场的功能与档次,二是建立新型农产品零售网络,三是大力发展农产品物流,四是构建农产品流通的组织体系,五是完善农产品交易方式,六是推进市场管理的规范化、法治化和制度化。     

中国早期保险法律的创制与解析

文章介绍了中国早期五部带有保险内容的法律，简要分析了其内容，并指出清政府以至近代历届政府都试图对保险业进行规范和管理，但由于种种原因皆归于无效。     

关于高校财务管理的几点思考

伴随着全面改革的深入,高校财务管理工作应进行如下改革:一是打通内外资金渠道,实行综合财务管理;二是建立健全硬化内部财务管理制度来规划学校的经济活动;三是转变会计职能,拓宽会计领域;四是充分挖掘内部潜力,提高现有资金的使用效益.如此才能满足高等学校教育体制改革的需要.     

THE HOLIDAY EFFECT IN STOCK RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM THE OTC MARKET

The patterns of daily returns in over-the-counter (OTC) stocks are examined to determine if a holiday effect exists in the OTC market. For the sample period of 1973–1989, test results provide evidence of unusually high returns on pre-holiday trading days and unusually low returns on post-holiday trading days in the OTC market. Additional analyses indicate that other documented calendar anomalies do not cause the pre-holiday effect, but the day-of-the-week effect apparently drives the post-holiday effect.     

从热工理论基础教学刍议课程改革

热工理论基础是经典、传统、系列化、内容广泛的课程,但对不同专业所需侧重点是不一样的。要 根据不同专业的实际需要,对课程内容和形式进行优化,符合职业技术教育的特点。     

素质教育应把德育放在首位

在素质教育中,在人才素质的诸要素中,思想道德素质是根本、是灵魂。这是最具有时代特征的新型人才观,也是素质教育的核心。思想道德素质制约和影响着学生的人生观和价值观;思想道德素质决定和影响着学生的治学态度;思想道德素质决定和影响学生毕业的发展和职业道德。     

迎接私营经济发展的新阶段——学习十六大报告体会之一

<正> 党的十六大在经济理论和经济发展方针方面的最大贡献有两个:一是建设全面小康社会,二是进一步发展非公有制经济,二者互为条件,相互促进,共同服从于我们党发展经济的根本目的——“提高全国人民的生活水平和质量”。用这样两个经济理论和方针来指导实践,必将带来社会主义市场经济体制的完善。